An inevitable threat against the Earth’s food supply, resulting in international chaos, is imminent if a massive global reduction in carbon emissions doesn’t take place in the next half century.
That was the message from noted international affairs columnist Gwynne Dyer as he painted a bleak picture of the Earth’s geopolitical future at Aultsville Theatre.
The grim premonition also came with a silver lining of redemption if the ingenuity and perseverance of humankind can make a collective effort on a personal and political level.
“Conservation and cutting back on the use of energy doesn’t fix the problem, it gives us more time to solve the problem,” said Dyer.
The realization that military from all over the world were heavily interested in climate change sent Dyer on a two-year tour, interviewing generals, diplomats and politicians.
The results are found in his newest book "Climate Wars" (based on his recent CBC "Ideas" series of the same name) which offers four key revelations Dyer discovered scouring the planet for answers.
First, the repercussions of global warming are approaching rapidly.
“We are not going to get through this without taking a lot of casualties, if we get through it at all,” said Dwyer.
Second, the military is correct in the notion that global warming cuts into food production, and some countries (mostly, those nearer to the equator) are going to suffer from it much more than others.
“They will generate huge numbers of refugees, they may become "failed states," and they could even end up at war with one another,” said Dyer. “The military will have plenty to keep them busy – and the more chaotic the world gets, the less chance there is for a global agreement on curbing greenhouse gases.”
Third, if the average global temperature surpasses 2 degrees Celsius it will release massive amounts of naturally stored carbon dioxide and methane.
“Two degrees equates to 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and we are already at 387 ppm ,” said Dyer. “Our emissions are now raising that number by 3 ppm per year.”
Dwyer warned at that point there may be no turning back and as the global temperature rises, massive casualties would accompany.
Fourth, the two-degree limit will be surpassed.
“It is very hard to believe that the talks for an international deal to replace the Kyoto accord will succeed soon enough, and mandate deep enough cuts, to stop the rise short of 450 ppm,” he said.
Still, after a barrage of bleak predictions Dyer noted that there is a way around all of the catastrophic possibilities.
“Fortunately, there is a way to cheat,” said Dyer.
He pointed out that various geo-engineering techniques can create an artificial sun-screen to keep the temperature below 2 degrees hotter.
Dyer suggested putting sulphur particles into the stratosphere, or thickening low-lying marine clouds to make them more reflective, are only stop-gap measures. “They don’t solve the problem. But they could win us extra decades to work at getting our emissions down without triggering the feedbacks,” said Dyer. “And we will probably be doing something like that within 10 years. This is a very big crisis, but there is a way through it.”
Dyer said between the personal and political level of civic environmental responsibility, it is the political that will make a difference.
“On a personal level you will never decide to put in a nuclear power plant or a wind farm,” said Dyer.
He urged the public to speak up as a voter or a political activist in order for governments to clean up their acts.
Dyer holds degrees from Canadian, American and British universities, finishing with a Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London. He served in three navies and held academic appointments at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University before launching his twice-weekly column on international affairs, which is published by over 175 papers in some 45 countries.